Are Real Estate Values A Roller Coaster Ride?

Robert Shiller is a Yale Economist who has enjoyed some fame for his book Irrational Exuberance, which was a timely publication that predicted the market correction on the heels of the tech bubble. He’s also stayed in the news with an ‘Exuberance’ redux, where he has predicted the bubble in housing values – every year since the tech bubble. Today’s post isn’t meant to take away from his theories and predictions, so for now, lets just agree that ‘even a broken clock is correct twice a day’… and we can get back into why I say that later on (if interested).

Shiller recently published an index of real estate values indexed for inflation. Before you look at it, we get a pretty fun visualization of of this chart from blogger Richard Hodge. Its worth taking the ride first. Shiller’s data is plotted here.

Where Analytic Capital Meets Experiential Capital

This is not your typical ‘fork in the road’. RealEstateJournal has an interesting article today about a study performed by a bunch of economists to look at when in life people are most likely to make minimal mistakes managing their finances.

The results vary by type of financial device or account managed, but everything landed in the ‘middle age’, with 53.4 years being the ideal age to make wise decisions with one’s money.

But why wait until 53? and if you already saw 53, why let things slide now? The forces that cause people to miss a payment, make a late one, etc, are mostly related to improper cash flow management and inadequate liquidity. Learning to master these two aspects of financial planning is key to withstand strain presented by life’s ‘curve balls’ and unexpected events.

Are your priorities stacked in the right order? You can accelerate the ‘Experiential Capital’ process by obtaining quality financial advice. If your mortgage is the biggest liability you have, or your home is your biggest asset, it makes sense to build your plan around real estate finance strategies. You certainly want your mortgage plan to be congruent with other financial objectives.

Young-With-Money Households

There is some interesting notes from a recent study by The Media Audit about incidence levels of 6-figure income earners out today… Here is a summary. For more information on The Media Audit, go here

Thursday, March 1, 20076.2 Million Young-With-Money Households
According to a new report by The Media Audit, there are 23.2 million adults in the 87 metropolitan markets, regularly surveyed by The Media Audit, with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more, and 6.2 million are between the ages of 18 and 34.

Bob Jordan, president of International Demographics, producing The Media Audit, notes that “There are more, by both percent and actual number, adults with six figure incomes under the age of 35 than there are over the age of 54.”

Among all those with six figure incomes:
26.6 percent, or 6.2 million, are under the age of 35
19 percent, or 4.4 million, are over the age of 54.
There are 43.8 million adults under age 35, and 39.8 million over age 54 in the markets measured
Eighteen percent of the “young with money” are age 18 – 20
18.9 percent are 21- 24
63.2 percent of the “young with money” are 25 – 34

Of the 6.2 million 18 – 34 year olds with six figure incomes, 60.9 percent are men and 39.1 are women.
Jordan says, “The gender differences …are in spite of the fact that the women are more inclined to have a college degree. Fifty six percent of 18-34 year old women earning $100,000 or more have one or more degrees. Just 46 percent of men in the category have one or more college degrees.”


In addition, 16.4 percent of men and 17.6 percent of women in the “young with money” group have advanced degrees. Men also get to the $100,000 income level quicker. Among women, 15.6 percent are 18 – 20 and 19.4 percent of men are in the same age group.

In spite of the gender differences, however, women buy more house. In the young with money group:
46.5 percent of women have homes valued at $300,000 or more
Among Men in the group, 42.2 percent have homes valued at $300,000 or more
80.7 percent of women in this group own their own home, compared with 74.3 percent of men

Approximately, says the report:
58.3 percent the “young with money” group are Caucasian
9.7 percent are African-American
15.3 percent are Hispanic
12.7 percent are Asian
For more information from The Media Audit, please visit here.

A lot of the young home buyers who contact us are driven to the idea of purchasing by being confronted with their Income Tax bill. Real Estate tax deductions get more appealing as your income gets higher. Roughly half of these people have exposure in housing beyond 300k. The key takeaway here is, the other 53.5-57.8% of young-with-money people are missing out on the opportunity. If you are in this category, its time to explore renting vs. buying, and how tax planning fits in with mortgage planning. If you are not already considering buying a home, or larger home, you may be interested in seeing what happens financially if you do.

Real Estate and Tax – What’s Important To Know

With tax season officially open for the 2006 filing year, its time to refresh the memory on some important tax issues related to real estate. I see a great deal of confusion and misinterpretation of tax rules when meeting with people in my mortgage planning practice. Realty Times has a good reminder on the homestead exepmtion that Bill Clinton gave us with the Tax Reform Act of 1997. Make sure you know the rules for this tax treatment on homes in the year they are sold – especially if you are thinking about renting the home out at any point. Its also important to know the difference between mortgage interest expense and investment interest expense when trying to write off those mortgage and HELOC dollars. I see the majority of people surprised when confronted with the rules for deduction of mortgage interest. The IRS is talking about taking a closer look at these deductions to make sure tax-payers are walking on the right side of this fine line…

You can find a lot of tax resourse on the IRS website, but you may want to consider letting a professional CPA handle your taxes for you. The more complicated your return, the more value a tax planner stands to offer. Let me know if you need help locating a good one.

Income Taxes of the Rich and Famous

According to a recent analysis done by our friends at the IRS, based on 2004 tax revenue:

  • The top 1% of income tax filers paid 36.9% of all tax dollars, yet they received only 19% of total adjusted gross income (AGI).
  • The top 5% of income tax filers paid 57% of all tax dollars, and made 33% of AGI.
  • The bottom 50% of all filers paid 3.3% of total income tax
  • The lowest income earners paid negative tax rates, based on credits, etc.

Wow! Are you incorporating tax avoidance strategy in your finances? Proper mortgage financing is one of the best ways to limit your exposure. Make sure you talk to a professional mortgage planner as a part of your financial picture.

Some more interesting numbers:

  • Top 1% of AGI = $328,000 and up
  • Top 5% of AGI = $137,000 and up
  • Top 10% of AGI = $99,100 and up

Don’t get caught trying to keep up with neighbor Jones, but it’s helpful to know where you land. Good financial planning might help you cross into a new zone next year. Let me know if you need help finding a Financial Planner, CPA, etc.