Mortgage Marketplace | Bay Area Real Estate Finance

Why You Might Want To Float Your Rate Into Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

Numbered Floats of the Lobster Fishermen of Conch Key During the Off-Season, Thousands of These Are Newly Painted and Stored All over the Little Island. photo © 1975 The U.S. National Archives | more info (via: Wylio) Mortgage Rates for Bay Area Real Estate and beyond were given a little jolt yesterday based on another signal that our economy is mildly improving… or at least “less bad” than before.

The report that gave rates a kick was the ADP Payroll data for December. ~300k new were created in December, whereas the expectation was for 100k. That’s a huge upside surprise, and markets react swiftly to surprises.

But the ADP report is taken with a grain of salt, in this case specifically because it doesn’t categorize temporary employees differently than full time ones. So, the numbers are assumed to be full of seasonal workers as you might expect when you realize that most retailers hire on extra help through the Christmas season.

Why You Want To Float

Tomorrow morning, before most of us are even awake, is the REAL jobs report, which contains official economic data on December jobs, and the unemployment rate. The market is highly sensitive to unemployment right now, and looking hard for anything to confirm or deny that we have an improving economy. 300k new jobs would be a significant step better than what we’ve been seeing in recent months, years even.

But if the report tomorrow helps shine a light on the ADP report, indicating that it was full of temporary (non-permanent) employees, then the market will likely want to exhale and undo the move it made yesterday, which should bump rates back down a little.

I’d be careful though, the larger trend in recent weeks has been for higher rates, driven by “less bad” economic data. So the sensitivity here is definitely to the upward direction with rates, even though I believe the probability favors a downward move.

With the volatility we’ve seen in recent months, be prepared for a report like this to move the market by .25% or so in either direction, if it misses expectations by a wide enough margin.

Want to talk about it? Send me an email and let me know what’s on your mind…

Weekly Mortgage Interest Rate Survey on Mortgage-x

I participate in a weekly survey on mortgage-x. For the upcoming week, I said:

Vote: () () Over the next 30 days rates will decline slightly; over the next 90 days rates will decline slightly.

Comment by John C. Glynn: A second-guessing of the ‘recovery’ will put pressure downward on rates, but be careful about the implications of an unwinding Federal Reserve with their asset purchase programs designed to lower rates – they are coming to an end.

Find out what others are saying by clicking here. (hint, looks like I am running with the pack this week…).

Mortgage Meltdown: More Blame Game and Depressing Politician Behavior

In case you still want to watch the debate over ‘who caused this Great Recession’, check this clip out. You can’t stick a bullseye on Barney Frank‘s back, let alone get a straight (or honest) answer out of him. But can you blame the guy? He’s a vote-getter first and foremost! Ok, I’m in a particularly cynical mood today, politicians depress me rather than inspire me 9 times out of 10. Now you know.

Last we heard, it was the Clinton administration pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lower lending standards to accommodate more low-income buyers. Who even cares at this point? I wish they’d stop the finger pointing and learn how to regulate before the crisis hits, not squeeze the life out of the market with righteous after-the-fact belt-tightening that is more about showboating to their constituencies (self-service) than about creating a healthy economic environment with stable legal guidance (public service).

For some more bad light on politicians, see this story about Senators Chris Dodd and Kent Conrad and their ‘sweetheart’ deals from Countrywide on their own personal mortgages, via a program called “Friends of Angelo” (Mizillo). How feasible is it that the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee (Dodd) and the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee remain unclouded in their judgment when receiving preferential treatment from a bank? In other words, “the last two people that should have dirty loans were at the front of the line”.

Well apparently they now admit that they were aware of the preferential treatment, though they denied it a year ago when the story first broke. I can’t find a credible link though that supports this supposed acknowledgement.

Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey on Mortgage-x

I participate in a weekly survey on mortgage-x. For the upcoming week, I said:

Vote: (V) (V) Over the next 30 days rates will decline slightly; over the next 90 days rates will decline slightly.

“Comment by John C. Glynn: Discord among analysts – and thus volatility – continues. There’s enough reason to expect rates to remain low, but the sensitivity seems to be to the upside for rates, so bad timing can potentially hurt.”

Find out what others are saying by clicking here. (hint, all over the map – still – which reinforces my belief about uncertainty above…).

090706 Less Worse Syndrome and other Brain Dumps

Are we in the midst of recovery? Has the Great Recession hit bottom? The market chatter has definitely shifted. Key changes include:

“green shoots” instead of “next shoe to drop”
“inflation” instead of “deflation”
“recovery” instead of “bottoming”

So…..?

During the last Fed meeting, there were actually conversations that included speculation that the Fed would either raise rates, or begin looking in that direction. They said nothing of the sort. And even though the oddsmakers had the chances of rates changing at that meeting at less than 4%, there was still anticipation along these lines. Since that meeting, SF Fed President (evidently in the running to be the next Fed Chairperson) reiterated her belief that the Federal Funds rate would be at or near the current level of 0.000-0.250% into 2010 or longer. huh.

Paul McCulley says, discussing the eventual hiking of Fed Funds rate:

“And when is all this going to happen? Last week, the markets started to romance the notion of before the end of 2009. To me, this is simply silly. In the matter of cutting off, and then kikking, the fat tail risk of deflationary Armageddon, boldness in execution is no vice, while patience in declaring victory is indeed a virtue. The Fed has been bold and is committed to patience. Bravo! And the first Fed rate hike? Call it no sooner than 2011.” -6/15/09

It’s going to be tough to pull out of this with rising unemployment. At 70% of GDP, Consumer Spending is a critical factor in new environment. Consider this from Bridgewater, which I recevied from John Mauldin:

“… as long as credit remains frozen, spending will require income, and income comes from jobs. And debt service payments are made out of income. Therefore, in a deleveraging environment job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions.”

Less Worse syndrome is dominating the markets right now. For example, in May, the total number of jobs lost came in around 345k, but since April had losses of ~509k, the markets saw this as a positive sign. Job losses are not positive. The month to month changes may indicate a change in the trend, but not just on one report. The June losses were at 465k. So that’s 509, then 345, then 465. During the mnth of June, before the June data was released, the markets were optimistic based on an appearance of “less worse”. They appear to be reconsidering…

…

The California new home purchase tax credit – 10,000 to anybody buying new construction residential real estate in CA has expired. The program hit it’s limit at 100,000 applicants.

There is a 1 page bill in congress to put the hated HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) policy on hiatus for 18 months. If you are engaged in a financing transaction, you’ve either encountered this acronym, or are about to. It is causing all kinds of problems, and creating quite a stir. Should be interesting to see where this goes. I’m not too encouraged by the 1-pager, but there’s been overwhelming support from the industry…

Fed Watch: What Did Today’s Policy Statement Really Say?

“Strikes and gutters, ups and downs…”

I have not seen this much anticipation ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in I don’t know how long. This component of the Federal Reserve meets for a 2 day session every 6 weeks, and makes a formal policy statement at around 11:15 (pacific) on the 2nd day. Generally, there are a lot of eyes on the markets in this moment, as the Fed’s statement will contain an update to or reassertion of the Federal Funds rate, a key short term rate with implications for the economy and longer term rate outlook. But there are also a few carefully constructed sentences released to justify their rate-setting decision, and the markets try to read between the lines for hints at what the Fed might be thinking.

When investors buy bonds, the values increase, and rates get lower.

We entered this week’s meeting in a state of uncertainty. During the spring months, the bond market had been flat for several months, rates for mortgages remaining relatively calm. Then, a few weeks ago, after a few economic reports indicated a potential recovery beginning to take place in the economy. This caused bond investors to pull some money out of the market in favor of other vehicles – like the stock market. The momentum gained traction until the levee broke, and a lot of the ‘safe haven’ money that goes into bonds during bad economic times started to flood its way out, causing rates on mortgages to rise – and rise quickly.

Just as quickly, the ‘confidence rally’ came to a halt, and the markets seemed to be reconsidering the idea that we were about to come out of the woods of The Great Recession. And that’s where we were today – caught in the middle, unsure of whether we are going to head into recovery, and bump right into hyper-inflation, or another wave of economic pessimism, causing bonds to regain their appeal.

All eyes were on Ben Bernanke and the Fed’s policy statement. The markets wanted to be reassured that inflation was not an imminent threat. They wanted confirmation that the Fed has an ‘exit strategy’ in place to unwind some if the excess reserves that have been pumped into the economy to fight deflation. Funds which if left unchecked, should lead to inflation again at some point. But there are as many critics of the inflation treat theory as there are proponents. And this causes the market to be uncertain. They wanted something to chew on today…

Here is a link to the policy statement. It was all old news. Nothing new. Just a subtle reference to the idea that they expect inflation to remain low, and that they are committed to their campaign to keep participating in market stabilization efforts.

The bond market made an initial sell-off, but knee-jerk reactions are typical. By the end of the session, the market for Mortgage Bonds (underlying instrument affecting mortgage rates) were dead flat on the day. I’ll give credit to Bernanke for playing it cool, and effectively managing the expectations of the market. By not responding directly to the wishes of the market, he reasserts the impression that he is in control. It may not be what the market was asking for, but the market abides.

Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey on mortgage-x

I participate in a weekly survey on mortgage-x. For the upcoming week, I said:

Vote: () () Over the next 30 days rates will decline significantly; over the next 90 days rates will decline slightly.

“Recent bond market deterioration represents a shift in sentiment, and the high volatility is representative of a lack of conviction. No markets like uncertainty. The shift toward optimism that we are coming out of the Great Recession may be premature.”

Find out what others are saying by clicking here. (hint, all over the map, which reinforces my believe about uncertainty above…).

Long Exhale… Brain Dump 06/09/2009

I’ve been plugging away some long hours over the last few months, but I’m back to shake some dust of the blog here. No cohesion promised here, just a spewing of some of the more evocative and interesting ideas, quotes, etc that I’ve seen since the last post:

– Jon La Grou introduces an awesome home construction enhancement, cheap, smart, simple. Updating 150 year old technology, bravo. 5 min video

– John Mauldin on the current crisis: “..This again illustrates the problem of using past performance to protect future results. You have to look at the underlying conditions in order to get a real comparison, and we have not seen a deleveraging recession in the US for 80 years. Using the past data in today’s world is useful, and may be harmful to your portfolio.” >> Word.

– Pimco’s Paul McCulley on the current crisis: “There’s nothing like a bull market to make geniuses out of levered dunces.”

– There’s a battle Royale taking place right now in the debate on the future of interest rates. We saw the low trend break down over the last two weeks, and what followed was one of the biggest downlegs in the bond market I’ve ever seen. Cheerleaders of the recovery think that long term interest rates need to be higher to attract investment capital. The Federal Reserve can’t continue to make the market with mortgages at 4.5% if all of the ‘safe haven’ dollars are now getting cozy with alternative vehicles to the US Treasury markets. But are we even out of the woods yet? With credit contracting, and unemployment rising (10% here we come!) how are we supposed to spend our way back to positive GDP growth? It doesn’t add up… I said it before, and I’ll say it again, we’ve got a lot of bites left in this sandwich…

– US Housing affordability index (which began tracking data in 1971) was at an ALL TIME HIGH before rates popped. This has been bringing in bargain hunters to gobble up the excess housing inventory. But the momentum was just getting going. With rates up, it knocks the index back a ways. But financing a home today is still cheap by historical standards. 30 year average of the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is closer to 7.500%

– In much of the recent economic press, there is discourse along the lines of “the worst is behind us”. The stock market has had one or two down weeks over the last three months. In other circles, we hear “commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop”. Given that it would be less likely that the government would bailout strip mall developers, will the markets be able to shake off an era of see-through buildings and continue dancing like there’s nothing to worry about?

The Case for Not Waiting

One of the more frustrating aspects of today’s marketplace is all the wasted energy. Consumers are stuck on the fence, waiting for lower rates to refinance, waiting for lower prices to become a buyer in this buyer’s market. Sometimes waiting pays off, and it certainly has if you hesitated to buy a home in 2006, and are now reconsidering. But you could be heating your house with the windows open…

Trying to squeeze blood from a turnip, waiting for 4.500% when you can get 4.625% today can lead to disappointing results. Rates are at or within spitting distance of all time historical low levels. With all the moving pieces of the puzzle, waiting often means a lot of false starts and missed opportunities.

Example 1 (purchase). Defining the cost of waiting. Maybe you’ve got a pretty good read on the supply/demand dynamics of your market, you know about the seller’s circumstances, competition, etc. Visibility is ok, and you know this house is overpriced. So you try and pull down the price tag, but the seller isn’t going for it. Do you have a good read on the global markets? Well, do ya? Some sort of inside track? What if that house you want does eventually come down 25k, but at that exact point in time, the markets are digesting a panic over inflation expectations, and rates have shot from 4.750% to 5.250%? What’s a better deal? The answer is: Lower rate, higher price. I’ll show my math if you don’t believe me, shoot me an email to request it.

Example 2-4 (refinance). Job loss, Equity loss, Rate spike. If you owe $400k 6.250%, waiting for 4.500% when you could have 4.625% today, how much do you lose paying at 6.250% for 3, 6, 12 months of waiting? Again, it’s helpful to do the math. 12 months at 6.250% costs $6500 more in interest than 4.625% over one year. The extra .125% in rate, if you can get to 4.500%, is worth $500 over a year.

Sure, over 30 years, that’s a significant savings. But it is not worth the cost of missing the boat altogether, as we hear about consumers doing every day.

Unemployment is rising (currently 8.5%). Equity is falling (price declines of 30-50% off peak in some markets). And there is a debate going on in the markets about inflation coming from excess stimulus cash in the financial system, and whether it will cause rates to spike without warning.

Would you rather have a $6500 sure thing, or a shot at $7000 with a potential risk of zero? These are forces beyond your control, so eliminate them or avoid them if you can. Otherwise, if you’re sitting on that fence, and you fall asleep, you might end up with a nasty burn…

This American Life & Planet Money Bring You: BAD BANK

NPR’s This American Life has done a few great features on the Subprime Crisis, the Banking Crisis, and the Economic Crisis (they evolve with the news!). Recently, along with the Planet Money team (which I believe became a spinoff team of This American Life after the 1st in the series), they released “Bad Bank“. It’s another great overview of the challenges before us, some details about how we got here, some good soundbites from congress, etc. They are among the best I have seen at breaking down this complex situation into digestable news. Give it a spin.

Earlier releases:
Giant Pool of Money
Another Frightening Show About the Economy