So Much For The Soft Landing Theory?


Holy smokes! The market is changing quickly, as the ‘other side’ of the cycle has arrived with a thud. Rates and products in the mortgage market are changing rapidly, and many homeowners are going to get caught up in the crossfire. Last week at American Home Mortgage, 800 Million dollars of would-be loan funds piled up in just 3 days as the company announced that it would not fund deals that had already signed. Forget those in underwriting, application, etc. 800 Million dollars – that’s a lot of homes! Think of the domino effect of broken purchase contracts, failed credit payments, etc. This kind of spiral is what causes the market to buckle, and why a quick change in liquidity is referred to as a “crunch” or “crisis”. Read more about it here, or here, or here.

As for today specifically, Mortgage Bonds are trading higher on unexpected news from Europe connected to US sub-prime mortgage investing problems, as well as Stocks trading lower off the same news. French Bank BNP Paribas, second largest bank in Europe, announced it has temporarily halted withdrawals in three of its mutual funds that have exposure to US subprime credit. As you can imagine, investors like you and I, who are told that their own funds are not available for withdrawal, would be quite worried. In the day’s only economic news, Initial Jobless Claims edged higher by 7,000 claims to 316,000, the highest weekly total since June 30 – a positive factor for the Bond market.

I often talk about the book “Manias, Panics and Crashes“. About a year ago I started reading this book again, and everyone looked at me like I was a doomsayer. But there is so much historical information in this book that can be applied to the current situation. It gives a detailed look at the anatomy of an asset cycle, and when and where systemic breakdown can occur. Rather than stick your head in the sand, take a look at it and consult with a professional about your finances, so that you can be sure you are prepared to weather this storm in housing and the mortgage market. Are you liquid enough to get through this?? It promises to get at least a little uglier before the dust settles. But this correction will be healthy for the long run.

If You Pay Somebody Else’s Mortgage, Can You Deduct Interest?

In another good bit from the Kiplinger Tax Letter, according to the IRS, the answer is no. Even if you actually paid any of it yourself. You have to be liable on the loan and an equitable owner to be eligible.

But Kiplinger’s points to a limited exception based on a ruling back in 1997. It says that a couple could deduct interest that they paid on a home loan, that their relatives signed for. The reason was that the couple had poor credit, and the relatives stepped in to help. But the occupants of the home made the payments, lived in the house, and made all repairs and improvements. They experienced all benefits and burdens of ownership.

I guess the IRS does not concern themselves with risk of foreclosure as one of the ‘burdens’ of ownership. The charitable relatives took on this burden, but Uncle Sam doesn’t seem to mind.

Has Been Stein Seen the Light?

Somebody forwarded to me an article by Ben Stein recently, and I noticed a stark contrast to the tone of the last Ben Stein article I recall reading back in January. I remember thinking when I read the first article that he was missing a key component of understanding housing as an investment. I assumed that he was not ignorant, but rather opted to deliver a streamlined and simplified message to his audience.

In the first article, Stein misses the concept of leverage when discussing return on housing. With leverage, you have to shift the focus to return on investment, not return on asset. I know he knows this, but now you can get an idea of why I had not – until the other day – read another of his articles.

So in the recent article, his tune changes a bit. He isn’t as suggestively sour on the financial aspects of house-as-investment, and focuses on pre-paying mortgage debt. But comparing the two pieces provides a great example of the fact that the decision to ‘buy the house’ and the decision to ‘pay off the mortgage’ need to be looked at as wholly separate investment decisions. They are totally unrelated. Stein seems ho-hum about buying a house for financial reasons (again, ignores the leverage component), but once you own the home, he suggests liquidity is more important than retiring debt.

I like the direction he is heading in…

John C. Glynn, CMPS
Real Estate Finance & Mortgage Planning
San Francisco Bay Area

Dead Fish Don’t Have A Mortgage Plan

I knew this kid in High School who was about as anti-establishment as they come. Pretty interesting guy, but somewhat difficult to get to know or get a good read on. When the senior year yearbooks came out, the quote beneath his name read: “Only dead fish follow the stream”. It captured what I perceived to be at the core of his personality. And the message was clear. What’s a worse thing to be than a dead fish? And what could be more true an image?

… 14 years later, it remains one of the more memorable from that sea of inside jokes, cliche inspiration, failed attempts at humor, and so on. It popped into my head again recently when I read a headline about a mortgage survey administered by Re/MAX in the Detroit area. It made the case that some 2/3 homeowners with a ‘nontraditional’ mortgage were planning to refinance. This was yet another media criticism of the mortgage industry, and the ‘nontraditional’ loan type. The media has made the terms ‘exotic’ and ‘nontraditional’ synonymous with ‘dangerous’ and ‘rip-off’ in the context of the mortgage industry.

This got me thinking, as the 2/3 number seemed extreme to me. I can’t imagine that 2/3 of the people with ‘nontraditional’ loans need to refinance into a market that is close to its 5 year high water mark. Generally, the media refers to anything that isn’t a 15 or 30 year fixed loan as ‘nontraditional’, but it would help to have clarification.

Refinancing always involves a cost/benefit analysis and can be viewed as a snapshot of one’s financial and credit profile as well as of the marketplace for money at any given point in time. “Based on where I am today, does the market offer me something better?” Something has to improve. It is unlikely that loans originated in the last few years are eligible for lower rates today – credit is at/near its tightest and most expensive levels in the last 5 years (though there are some cases). So this statistic has to refer to people who are looking for more protection in the form of longer fixed rate periods. They are likely rolling into a higher rate, higher payment or both.

Of people who need to refinance, there are a few possible motivations: they were misguided when they took out their current loan, they are misguided about what they need going forward, or more innocently, things have just simply changed.

Among those who intend to refinance based on changes in life, those who are not taking out cash are going to be refinancing specifically to change the terms of their loan. And if this specific sector is equal to 2/3 of those with ‘nontraditional’ mortgages, then this would indeed be worthy of a news headline with a story about how ‘nontraditional mortgages’ are bad for your financial health.

But I doubt this is the case. Cash-out refinancers would be re-financing regardless of the current loan (to a degree). The misguided folks are not adequately understanding how to evaluate the cost/benefit proposition, or they didn’t when they took out that last loan.

The key takeaway here is that life does in fact change. Among this 2/3 figure, there are likely those who knew life would be changing around this time, and took out a mortgage that fit the timeline of expected change, and saved a bundle in the process. They are the guided ones. The ‘dead fish’ are the folks who are letting the current push them around.

Living fish also follow the stream for the most part, but they navigate. They know when to resist the current, move to the side, etc, as opposed to banging into rocks and driftwood – and washing up on shore.

Let’s face it. Resistance can get you in trouble. Defiance can get you hurt. But if there is a stampede headed for a narrow escape, sometimes you’ll be better off figuring out a different way out rather than trying to squeeze through that door with the rest of them – or better yet – knowing how to avoid being stuck in the first place. Don’t be a dead fish. Get a plan in place.

John C. Glynn, CMPS
Real Estate Finance & Mortgage Planning
San Francisco

Family & Estate Planning Basics

A good checklist found in a recent article in Money Magazine is below. These are items that you should discuss with your parents – at any age. You don’t need all the info now, but you should know how to find it:

-Will
-Life Insurance Policies
-Long-Term-Care Policies
-Banking & Brokerage Accounts
-Social Security Cards
-Medicare & Insurance Cards
-Doctor’s Names & Numbers
-List of Medications
-Lawyer & Accountant Numbers

Seems pretty basic, but helpful to review. I mention it here because of the frequency with which I work with people who have lost their parents, and are facing major financial implications that we are coordinating through strategic mortgage planning. Its not a fun topic to discuss, but help yourself by cutting out some of the chaos that ensues when you cannot find the items listed above.

John C. Glynn, CMPS
Real Estate Finance & Mortgage Planning
San Francisco

Where Is Your Retirement Plan?

I am truly amazed at the number of folks I meet with who have either not started, or do not fully participate in a retirement plan. I am especially dismayed by those who fit this description and already have retirement in their cross-hairs. I understand its tough enough as it is to pay the bills, especially in the San Francisco Bay Area, and throughout most of California. Maybe it has been my saturation in the field of personal finance, but I feel like the cost/benefit evaluation of a qualified retirement plan should be as obvious today as the health risks associated with smoking.

OK, maybe I am guilty of hyperbolic analogy. But I’m here to help shed some light, and I want my point to be clear. YOU NEED to understand the time value of money, and the power of tax deferral. The United States government wants you to be capable of taking care of yourself financially when you retire, and so they have created some incentives to encourage you to save now, and not rely on social security. In case you haven’t noticed, legislators believe we are critically under-prepared for taking care of the retiring baby-boomer generation; you DO NOT want to go through life relying on Social Security 100%. We call this ‘whistling through the graveyard’.

If you work for a corporation, non-profit, are self-employed, or a contractor, there is a plan for you. 401(k), 403(b), IRA, Roth IRA, SEP, Simple, Solo 401(k), pension, etc. Don’t get overwhelmed by the big picture here. Find your plan, and GO.

Small business folks have a great resource here. If your company offers a 401(k), here is some great resource as well. Did you know that your company now automatically enrolls you for a minimal contribution unless you opt-out? They’re doing you a favor. Most companies match a portion of your contribution – depending on how its structured, thats a 50-100% return on your money in the bank! This is a no-brainer, folks.

You will often hear me say that ‘the dollar you don’t put in your 401(k) is likely the most expensive dollar you spend’. Others advise to ‘pay yourself first’. It all starts here. I know the objections, and I understand them. Its time to get over it.

If you need some help figuring out how to make room for these contributions, contact me. Smart mortgage planning will make room for your financial priorities, and this should be one of your highest.

Mortgage Planners Going Too Far

I was reading an article about Reverse Mortgages the other day, and one tangent paragraph really caught my attention. It was discussing one of the problems with Reverse Mortgages being that it could put “a bundle of cash into a consumer’s hands, marking an enticing target for financial product sellers to exploit.” The fact that this is an inaccurate statement about Reverse Mortgages (Cash-out mortgages: yes; Reverse Mortgages: no) is obscured by the sentiment behind the statement – which is agreeably concerning. The article sites a California law that prevents mortgage brokers from selling annuities in the process of re-financing your debt. Yikes… Thank you Sacramento…

Any time you hire a professional to handle business for you – any sort of business – it is important that they know what they are doing. Too often we see people attempt to wear too many hats, and what happens as a result? They don’t wear any of them well.

A Certified Mortgage Planner (CMPS) can help introduce you to concepts related to financial planning and how the mortgage relates to these interests (in fact, if they do not, you might be talking to the wrong one…). BUT, there is a fine line being crossed when this professional tries to do everything else for you. How can they possibly be an expert at mortgages, investments, insurance products, credit counseling, taxes, etc, all at once? Make sure your Certified Mortgage Planner (CMPS) is working with other professionals who focus on these areas, not trying to wear too many hats.

As a former financial advisor, I can testify that the Series 7 licensing and training involves quite a bit of focus on NASD rules and fiduciary responsibility in general. The licensing that allows a person to be a real estate salesperson, mortgage broker, etc has relatively none. CMPS has made some great strides to inject ethics and responsibility into the mortgage industry; make sure you are working with somebody who holds this important designation.

When does an Alternative Mortgage Make Sense?

The recent rise in short term interest rates has brought financial strain to misguided and mismanaged mortgage consumers. The media has of course spotlighted this issue and used it to fuel the negative sentiment toward and resentment of Mortgage Brokers. Don’t get me wrong – those who know me well already know I agree with much of the critique of my own industry – but I also think the media likes to make examples in extreme cases.

The case for the traditional 30 year fixed (FRM) has always been safety from interest rate risk exposure. In other words, lock in now for 30 years, and you never have to worry if rates go up. You can refinance if rates go down. But even Alan Greenspan thinks this strategy can be wasteful for some consumers. What if you know you will move in a shorter period of time? Or at least think the odds are good? How about if you expect major changes to your income in the next few years? Have near-term financial goals outside of the home, like funding a college education or retirement plan? Statistics tell us that getting to the mid-way point in a 30 year mortgage is highly unlikely. Average loan duration is around 5.1 years.

Mortgage Planning explores alternative types of mortgage financing so that you can adjust the structure of your largest liability to make room for other goals. This may mean lower payments now, and higher payments later. It may mean less certainty in the future, or greater interest rate risk. It may also mean the difference between living ‘house-poor’ and achieving more of your financial goals. When weighing these risks, you need to also explore the probability that they would even matter. And what do you risk by being too safe?

For a more sterile example of why alternative mortgage products might make sense, see this short essay by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, especially the section titled: “Some motives for choosing alternative mortgages”.

Everybody is different. Make sure you have proper guidance so you can fit your mortgage plan within your financial plan – and your life plan.