Tag: Filtering News From The Media

The Case for Not Waiting

One of the more frustrating aspects of today’s marketplace is all the wasted energy. Consumers are stuck on the fence, waiting for lower rates to refinance, waiting for lower prices to become a buyer in this buyer’s market. Sometimes waiting pays off, and it certainly has if you hesitated to buy a home in 2006, and are now reconsidering. But you could be heating your house with the windows open…

Trying to squeeze blood from a turnip, waiting for 4.500% when you can get 4.625% today can lead to disappointing results. Rates are at or within spitting distance of all time historical low levels. With all the moving pieces of the puzzle, waiting often means a lot of false starts and missed opportunities.

Example 1 (purchase). Defining the cost of waiting. Maybe you’ve got a pretty good read on the supply/demand dynamics of your market, you know about the seller’s circumstances, competition, etc. Visibility is ok, and you know this house is overpriced. So you try and pull down the price tag, but the seller isn’t going for it. Do you have a good read on the global markets? Well, do ya? Some sort of inside track? What if that house you want does eventually come down 25k, but at that exact point in time, the markets are digesting a panic over inflation expectations, and rates have shot from 4.750% to 5.250%? What’s a better deal? The answer is: Lower rate, higher price. I’ll show my math if you don’t believe me, shoot me an email to request it.

Example 2-4 (refinance). Job loss, Equity loss, Rate spike. If you owe $400k 6.250%, waiting for 4.500% when you could have 4.625% today, how much do you lose paying at 6.250% for 3, 6, 12 months of waiting? Again, it’s helpful to do the math. 12 months at 6.250% costs $6500 more in interest than 4.625% over one year. The extra .125% in rate, if you can get to 4.500%, is worth $500 over a year.

Sure, over 30 years, that’s a significant savings. But it is not worth the cost of missing the boat altogether, as we hear about consumers doing every day.

Unemployment is rising (currently 8.5%). Equity is falling (price declines of 30-50% off peak in some markets). And there is a debate going on in the markets about inflation coming from excess stimulus cash in the financial system, and whether it will cause rates to spike without warning.

Would you rather have a $6500 sure thing, or a shot at $7000 with a potential risk of zero? These are forces beyond your control, so eliminate them or avoid them if you can. Otherwise, if you’re sitting on that fence, and you fall asleep, you might end up with a nasty burn…

This American Life & Planet Money Bring You: BAD BANK

NPR’s This American Life has done a few great features on the Subprime Crisis, the Banking Crisis, and the Economic Crisis (they evolve with the news!). Recently, along with the Planet Money team (which I believe became a spinoff team of This American Life after the 1st in the series), they released “Bad Bank“. It’s another great overview of the challenges before us, some details about how we got here, some good soundbites from congress, etc. They are among the best I have seen at breaking down this complex situation into digestable news. Give it a spin.

Earlier releases:
Giant Pool of Money
Another Frightening Show About the Economy

ARRA 2009 – Important Details, Effective Date

ARRA Brings New Opportunity To Refinance or Modify

There has been an overwhelming amount of noise and confusion since the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) was announced a few weeks ago. As a follow up to my message from 2/24, below is an summary of the recently released details, some resources to help you figure out if this will benefit you, and some instructions on what steps you should take next. If you think this information is useful, please pass it along. Feel free to forward this email to anyone you know that may be impacted.

The Making Home Affordable government program is divided into two parts:

· Modification Program

· Refinance Program

Despite all the fanfare surrounding this program, it remains 100% VOLUNTARY, and mortgage servicers (the companies that actually collect borrowers’ mortgage payments) are not obligated by law to follow these rules and guidelines…yet. Oddly enough, even if a financial institution has already received assistance with government funding, they are NOT obligated to participate. However, if a financial institution receives new or more government funding in the future, they WILL be obligated to participate.

In other words, the rules are still a bit unclear and nobody really knows who will participate and how it will all work from a practical perspective. Most of what you read and hear about in the media will most likely be speculation at this point. In a nutshell, the program has three elements:

· The government is offering financial incentives to mortgage servicers who modify loans for borrowers.

· The government is offering financial reimbursement to investors if they allow servicers to modify loans and then take a hit on the borrower’s re-default if the property declines in value after the loan modification

· The government is offering financial incentives to borrowers who modify their loans and make their new payments on time

Vacation homes and investment properties don’t qualify for the program. Only borrowers who have experienced some type of financial hardship can qualify. Click on this link if you want to see if you qualify for at least the minimum requirements.

Remember, even if you do qualify under these minimum requirements, your servicer (the company where you send your payments) might not be participating in the program just yet.

Part 2 – Refinance Program

Here’s how it works:

· You need to be current on your mortgage payments (no late payments in the last 12 months)

· Your mortgage balance cannot exceed 105% of the current value of your home

· Your mortgage needs to be owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

o This may include Alt-A or even sub-prime mortgages

Based on current market conditions, this might make sense for you if:

· You have an adjustable rate, interest only, or balloon mortgage that you want to convert into a fixed rate; or,

· You have a fixed rate mortgage where the interest rate is greater than 5.500%.

Important Dates

· This program becomes effective on APRIL 4. Prior to that date, you can, and should begin the process of gathering required documentation. Please contact me to get this process started.

To find out if your mortgage is owned/guaranteed by Fannie Mae, click here.

To find out if your mortgage is owned/guaranteed by Freddie Mac, click here.

Other Recent Developments

There have been many other recent developments in the markets, as well as new government legislation. Here are just a few recent items that may impact you or someone you know:

· Home improvement tax credit

· First-time home buyer tax credit (Federal)

· New construction home purchase tax credit ( California primary residences)

· Reverse mortgages for home purchase transactions (age 62 or older)

· Suspension of required minimum distributions for certain retirement accounts (age 70 ½ or older)

Let me know if you’d like to discuss any of these items in further detail by sending a quick email.

Is The Stimulus Coming to a Town Near You?

Stimulus Watch.

This is a pretty cool resource. It gives an overview of the projects, budgets, and number of jobs created by various stimulus plan initiatives.

I clicked around for a few local towns, places I’ve traveled recently, and places I’ve lived.

Oakland CA
San Ramon CA
Pasadena CA
San Francisco CA
Jackson MS
Nashville (zip!) TN & Memphis (zilch!) TN
Maui HI
Grants Pass (nada!) OR
Tucson AZ

Frontline on The Mortgage Meltdown

There was certainly some sensationalism, but I liked the way they presented this. In fact, I like the dramatic production effects, such as sirens in the background as if somebody had called 911 as the market chaos reached one apex after another. Kind of amusing, but makes a dry topic easier to watch… Beneath the surface, and particularly interesting is the look at the political and competitive elements of Henry Paulson’s actions at the height of the marketplace drama. You can watch it here.

Join the Savings Craze! The Paradox of the Paradox of Thrift

Experiencing a recession is great way to force a reassessment of your financial behavior. The Great Depression is famous for shaping a generation of frugal citizens/consumers. Do you feel like you have not been saving enough money? America Saves Week dot Org has a 12 step program for you. Join the craze!

But wait, popular economic theory of the day warns of ‘the Paradox of Thrift‘. What may be good for the individual is not good for the collective. Waxing economical takes place here, here, and here. Is there a moral dilemma here? Is this why we’ve been trained to act as consumers, rather than citizens?

Paul Kasriel has another angle. Debunking the Paradox with some tough love for WSJ contributer Daniel Henninger.

UPDATE: Proposed Changes to Tax Credit, Conforming Limits

Republican amendments to the current stimulus package up for vote later today include:

-Restoring the $729,750 loan limits in some areas

-Temporarily offer homebuyers a tax credit worth $15,000 or 10% of a home’s purchase price, whichever is less, with the option to utilize all in one year or spread out over two years. The credit does not have to be paid back. It would be available to all purchases of any home from date of enactment for one full year – no longer just a first time homebuyer credit, and borrowers would be able to claim the credit against the 2008 tax return.

-Other details:

  1. buyers must occupy the home for two years as their principle residence
  2. includes a two year recapture provision (if they leave the home in two years they lost the credit)
  3. purchases of homes by investors are ineligible

The bill is still working its way through Congress, and the House of Representatives must still negotiate with the Senate since the House bill does not contain the credit.

Proposed Changes to Homebuyer Tax Credit, Conforming Limits

Rumors are going around about the following ideas, supposedly on the table for legislative discussion:

First Time Buyer Tax Credit Change:
Currently, the credit is up to $7500 for qualified first time buyers, and the funds are expected to be repaid at the rate of $500 per year for the ensuing 15 years.

Proposed changes are for increasing the credit to $14,000, and also to make it forgivable. In other words, no requirement to be repaid. Ever.

That is a significant change, and would represent a MAJOR incentive to enter the market.

Conforming Loan Limits:
Currently, the limit is 417k nationally, and in some high cost areas, it can be as high as 625,500. All 9 Bay Area counties are currently at 625,500. During 2008, the ceiling was higher – 729,750, but the “temporary” classification caused the lenders, who still operate in a free market world, to have almost zero interest. It didn’t really work. The 625,500 level was more conservative, but permanent. It has helped, but not quite as well as intended.

Proposed changes would reinstate the ceiling at 729,750 for qualified California property, or, according to one source, raise the ceiling to ~$932,000 for qualified California property.

Also potentially significant change, unlocking many borrowers with high outstanding loan balances on expensive property. No way of knowing if lenders will have an appetite for these deals or not, but it’s something to keep an eye on…