SF Fed President Janet Yellen Speaks on Housing, Economy

I like the general sentiment in Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday regarding the state of our economy. Since Economists are generally regarded as dry and boring, I don’t expect you to want to read yourself – that’s why I talk about it here. But if you’re in the mood, feel free here. Lots of other stuff I am reading gets posted on this page as well.

I keep writing about the different vibes being given by credible sources on our economy, where we are headed, and what the implications are for the housing market. Yellen’s speech yesterday gives some great insight into the mindset of the Fed right now, and what they are confident about and what they are uncertain about. The general idea is that we are seeing increasing evidence of the ‘soft landing’ scenario.

You get a great idea of how dynamic the economy is when reading this, as there are so many variables that play into the evaluation, and each one affects the others in direct and indirect ways. Along these lines, as many people are watching the economy to make predictions about housing, others are looking at housing to make predictions about where the economy will go. Sometimes its difficult to see which comes first.

We see analysis that suggest home equity borrowing has specifically contributed as much as 1% to the annual GDP growth. With a current rate of 2-3%, that’s a significant portion! With the 17 consecutive rate hikes to the Fed Funds and Prime rates, consumer demand for dollars should drop, slowing spending, and slowing economic growth… Those cuts seem to be working….

A few months ago everybody thought that the Fed was impatient with their pace of rate hikes, and should wait longer to see the early part of the cycle make its way through to GDP figures (arguably a 9-24 month lag time). The fear was that they would slow us too aggressively and put is in recession. (Then we get rate cuts, go the other way to stimulate spending, etc… the so-called pendulum swinging back and forth…) But This side of the rate cycle is looking now to be one of the longest pauses at the top on record. This could change with a big miss either way in CPI, Jobs data, PCE, or other economic reports, but so far things are looking pretty healthy.

Look at this quote from Yellen’s speech: “…it looks as if the economy is pretty close to the ‘glide path’ I mentioned before – growth has slowed to a bit below most estimates of the economy’s long-run potential, while the risk of an outright downturn has receded.” So much for the pendulum getting ready to swing the other way… its on a nice slow drift into place.

We still expect to see corrections in the yield curve, but the threat of inflation needs to be fully contained first. Still a glimmer left… As I like to say, there are a lot of moving targets out there. The sentiment can change quickly. But for now, it looks as though the big picture is in a fair amount of control.

Are We Going To See A Soft Landing?

The news media has covered the real estate market in the last few years with close attention. As prices have soared to historic highs, some economists have speculated that the value growth has been unsustainable, and that we are headed for a painful value correction. Fear of what the implications of this scenario would look like has fueled the media coverage – remember, they love to keep you on your toes.

Going a little beyond the scope of the nightly news, you might be able to get a more credible view on where we are headed. After all, there’s a million Economists out there getting paid a million dollars to research, digest data, and speculate as to where we are headed, but they are often not as ‘exciting’ as your 11 o’clock news anchor… Because of the immensely dynamic national and world economy, these Economists are all over the board with their predictions. And when the consensus gets scattered, we get that feeling of uncertainty that might make the American consumer take pause (for what it means to the economy when the American consumer takes pause, consult your local Economist… I told you: dynamic!!). There are a lot of contradictory opinions floating around out there – I know, because I read the boring Economist stuff. As a Mortgage Planner I keep a pulse on these things and make recommendations that respect your financial objectives within the context of the mortgage landscape and the economic environment at the time – and going forward.

You can get an idea of what these pundits are looking at to make their assessments of our economy, and register their opinions. It may not be exciting stuff to everybody, but it helps to know where they are coming from. Here are a few items that they are watching to see if we are in fact headed for a “soft landing”. In general, inflation concerns bring higher rates, and make housing less affordable.

RETAIL SALES Report: This comes out monthly and shows the mood of the American consumer. Strong sales indicate that businesses are making profits, and that the economy should keep cooking. Too strong a report suggests too much money floating around, and an environment where inflation can run too high – that can lead to higher interest rates. Sharp declines in this report suggest that the opposite. A precursor to a “hard landing” might be a sharp downturn in this report.

TRANSPORTATION COMPANIES: When companies like FedEx and UPS lower their outlooks or speak of declines in activity, it suggests the American consumer is slowing spending.

DURABLE GOODS Report and BUSINESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES (CapEx): : Shows when businesses are spending (and growing or looking to grow) and expand capacity for production. The report gives an indication of upcoming manufacturing activity, and when this slows there can be inflationary pressure.

ISM INDEX: Manufacturing index of industrial companies that signals expansion and contraction in this sector.

MORTGAGE FORECLOSURE Rates: When these pick up, it suggests lending guidelines will tighten and shrink the pool of buyers. This lowers demand, and can accelerate a decline in housing activity.

AUTO SALES: A recession predictor, the economy often flows in the same direction as Auto Sales.

Hey, wake up! If you made it through all of that, you might want to consider a career as an Economist – we could use some help figuring out if we are in fact headed for a “soft landing” or not.

When does an Alternative Mortgage Make Sense?

The recent rise in short term interest rates has brought financial strain to misguided and mismanaged mortgage consumers. The media has of course spotlighted this issue and used it to fuel the negative sentiment toward and resentment of Mortgage Brokers. Don’t get me wrong – those who know me well already know I agree with much of the critique of my own industry – but I also think the media likes to make examples in extreme cases.

The case for the traditional 30 year fixed (FRM) has always been safety from interest rate risk exposure. In other words, lock in now for 30 years, and you never have to worry if rates go up. You can refinance if rates go down. But even Alan Greenspan thinks this strategy can be wasteful for some consumers. What if you know you will move in a shorter period of time? Or at least think the odds are good? How about if you expect major changes to your income in the next few years? Have near-term financial goals outside of the home, like funding a college education or retirement plan? Statistics tell us that getting to the mid-way point in a 30 year mortgage is highly unlikely. Average loan duration is around 5.1 years.

Mortgage Planning explores alternative types of mortgage financing so that you can adjust the structure of your largest liability to make room for other goals. This may mean lower payments now, and higher payments later. It may mean less certainty in the future, or greater interest rate risk. It may also mean the difference between living ‘house-poor’ and achieving more of your financial goals. When weighing these risks, you need to also explore the probability that they would even matter. And what do you risk by being too safe?

For a more sterile example of why alternative mortgage products might make sense, see this short essay by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, especially the section titled: “Some motives for choosing alternative mortgages”.

Everybody is different. Make sure you have proper guidance so you can fit your mortgage plan within your financial plan – and your life plan.

Interest to Remain Moving Target in 07

The rolling economic data is keeping Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve on their toes. And in return, the Fed is keeping the investment community on their toes. As recently as 3 months ago, the futures market had a probable interest rate cut predicted as soon as December 06. By the time December rolled around, those odds had faded, and now, nothing is expected until the third or fourth quarter – if at all.

The Fed is still eyeing inflation as their greatest concern. They have continued to suggest that the “extent and timing of additional firming” will depend on this incoming rolling data. The bias is in fact on a tightening as the next move, but its a pretty modest one at this point.

Through the eyes of Real Estate Finance and Mortgage Planning, this has rates continuing to stay in a narrow range, and they are expected to do so through much of the year.

What Happens when Everybody is Talking About Housing?

“Housing Decline” was the most talked about news item of the year in 2006, according to a recent AP article. This probably comes as a surprise to nobody. But to what extent does consumer sentiment about housing have an impact on the underlying values? Or is it just a good way to get a barometric reading on the financial aspects of the market?

Back in 1999 when I was working as a financial advisor, I remember reading several articles that discussed the relationship between news reporting frequency of key terms and the financial performance of the related commodity. Back then, all the talk was about the stock market, and mutual funds, which had become so prolific that they outnumbered the number of individual stocks listed in the US Market. Inexperienced investors were being drawn to the stock markets in droves, and prices were flying with the influx of new money. On occasion, even hip-hop music – historically boastful about financial prowess – made mention of mutual funds amidst its more commonly urban references.

The significance of this was that the more there was mention of a sentiment in the news media and pop culture, the more likely it was that momentum was being driven to an unsustainable level. We saw it come in 2000, when the stock market hit a major correction. The worst of the decline was felt in the NASDAQ, where most of the new investors had been drawn to the recent fast-paced technology company returns.

We saw it again last year in housing, when everybody seemed to be talking about buying houses, with ‘no money down’ and making ‘positive cash-flow’ from the start. All of these infomercial testimonials with the ‘average couple’ sitting by a pool at a resort in Orlando, discussing how much passive income they received in the previous month… it was a sign that the market was over-heated.

Charles Kindleberger notes in his famous anatomy of a crash Manias, Panics and Crashes that “when the world is mad, we must imitate…”, capturing the essence of the fuel that is the consumer in pursuit of ROI. Even when we know something is too good to be true, there can be an urge to get involved. If you don’t, you risk getting left behind. To this end, the American consumer has the ability to self-fulfill its own prophecy, but it typically leads to excesses, and the last guy in gets left holding the bag. So far the ‘housing decline’ seems to be moderate in most markets – but not all. Its going to be easy to see in retrospect where the market got overheated. I’ve discussed it here before, and I will continue to as we cycle through this market.

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Heres a link to some economist sentiment for 2007

Beware the Media!

Long-time friends and colleagues know me well enough to know that I take in my news with a fair amount of skepticism. No matter who you are listening to (in and out of media) its wise to keep mindful of their bias and objectives. Its a pretty simple rule. This is why the nightly news advertises stories about which of your dinner ingredients might kill you tonight!… but the story runs at 11pm… they just want some attention so they can sell commercial time to their advertisers.

Look at the difference between two different stories on the topic of baby-boomers and the implications for housing. From the perspective of Real Estate and Mortgage companies, Realty Times reports of the generation “They’ve got all the money … They’ve got all the real estate, too”. The article makes the case for the next wave of Real Estate activity with baby-boomers leading the charge by buying 2nd homes and vacation property. This is no new speculation by the way; stories about this appear weekly.

But look at this article. It basically reports that baby-boomers are far more likely to remodel their homes than move to the beach, or the desert, or to buy a 2nd home on the shore of some lake. And who is behind the so-called study? Home Depot!

The only way you can get a sense of anything out there, especially in the real estate market, is to get as many angles and opinions as possible. Do your best to triangulate reality among all of the self-serving junk in the news.

Blowing Bubbles…

Are we headed for a soft landing? The media has been beating the ‘real estate bubble’ drum for several years, and in doing so scaring countless would-be homeowners out of buying what would have been a nice investment, not to mention a nice place to call home. But now we are seeing a counter-weight of similar magnitude, in real estate professionals and industry insiders who clamor for the so-called “soft landing” in the housing market.

Stepping back a bit and looking at housing from an economic perspective we might be able to take some of the hot air out of the equation and see what is really happening. Housing is an investment, and an asset in a class of its own based on the function it serves relative to other types of investments. But real estate is still subject to market conditions, cycles, and other typical financial rhythms.

There is no question that housing has seen tremendous gains in recent years, exhibiting characteristics of ‘irrational exuberance’ that have paved the way to inflated asset prices and preceded significant corrections in value. The most recent memorable example was the NASDAQ and dotcom stock rally that came to an end in 2000. From the peak of the rally to the trough of the correction, the index lost a staggering 71%

Commentary on the asset bubble phenomenon most commonly references a mania in the market for Dutch tulip bulbs during the 1630’s, where at the height of the market, people were swapping homes for flower bulbs.

In Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles Mackay wrote “that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit.” Is this what we have seen in the US housing market in recent years?

The characteristics of a cycle turning over are present in the housing market. First we saw a parabolic curve in home values. The Federal Reserve stepped in to raise rates (while the general goal was to curb inflation, it is very likely that the specific goal was to temper home values), and eventually inventory increased. Now prices are starting to come down.

Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust recently published that in the current housing rally, the dollar volume of all sales was at a record high when represented as a percentage of GDP. The implication is that this is an extreme market, and that we should be facing a similarly extreme correction.

Given that the housing market continued to rally in the face of the Fed rate hikes, demand was defined as ‘inelastic’. In other words, people did not care that it was becoming more expensive to buy; they just used more liberal loan products, taking on increased risk, and kept on spending. It took 17 hikes of 0.25% each before the market showed a change in mood.

Several economists think that the Fed tightened rates well beyond the neutral point, and expect them to start lowering as soon as January 2007. Cool the jets with higher rates, then slowly ease back into the comfort zone. Its like getting into a car that has been parked in the sun: put the AC on full blast for 10 minutes, and you’ll eventually need to back off and find the middle ground.

Paul McCully at PIMCO recently made the case that all of this suggests that a ‘soft landing’ in housing is nothing but a pipe dream. Demand for housing, he says, is inelastic on the way down, just as it is on the way up. Once the investors change sentiment, rate cuts are not going to bring them back in droves. We saw this with the NASDAQ, and stock market in general. It took an over-correction and under-valued securities to bring the interest back to Wall Street.

So is housing due for an over-correction? Is the ‘soft landing’ attainable? Kasriel and McCully make for an interesting case. Next we will look at the Kubler-Ross model laid down over the US housing market, and see if we can find any similarities.

Rock the Vote! TIC Coalition in SF

In San Francisco, affording the home of your dreams takes a lot of money, and a tough stomach!

One of the many areas of political battleground on the streets here in San Francisco is that of affordable housing. There are some interesting social intersections here where the typically egalitarian political mood of San Francisco meets with the stratified financial footing of its residents. I won’t go off on a political rant here; I am more interested in distributing some useful info on the coming elections…

In San Francisco, the cost per square foot of house is on the upper end of the spectrum nation wide. In an effort to cut some costs, people have taken to buying multi-unit buildings by joining with other buyers – often times strangers – to pool resources and buy the entire building. They take title as Tenants in Common, which essentially gives each party ownership in the building as defined by percentages rather than by area or a specific unit within the building. In many cases, the next step is to legaly convert the building to condominiums, thereby granting each party exclusive ownership of their respective unit, and the freedom to finance or sell separately from other building owners.

Tenancy in Common housing and condo-conversions have really become a political hot-button in recent years. Because a condo has fewer strings attached from the perspective of the owner, it is usually considered more valuable as an asset, thus the tendancey to want to convert. But proponents of affordable housing issues argue that if the city converts too much inventory into condos, they will eliminate relatively affordable living space for the thousands of people in need.

As is with any political battle, the laws swing back and forth between the two competing interests, and currently represent San Franciscos predominantly liberal politics. There are extremists on each side. There is probably an acceptable range of middle ground for a solid utilitarian community. But at times there needs to be resistance to hold the balance in this middle ground. For example, under current law, some owners will wait 5 years before being allowed to convert, and the process itself takes 2 years (if you are lucky!) just to wade through the bureaucratic process that the city requires. In recent years, legislation has pushed this timeline out to be as long as a decade in some cases.

To many, the idea of owning real estate but being legally prohibited from controlling what you do with that real estate is a seagull poop on the statue of the American Dream. To this concern, the San Francisco TIC Coalition has united as a force to represent the interests of home owners. In a recent advisory, they recommended voting “NO” on Prop H, and cited this page for more info. One thing I will rant about politically is the uneducated voter – so do your homework! But consider them a good resource for the home owner in San Francisco – especially if you are involved in a TIC.

* Several interesting reports on Affordable Housing can be found here.
* More info about the SF TIC Coalition can be found here.

Growing Momentum for Change in Realtor Broker Compensation Models

Dating all the way back to the 1970s, there has been debate about the traditional compensation model for Real Estate agents, and the politics and laws surrounding the debate.

In the last few years, the expectation that technology would cause dramatic change to this long-standing model has been at the forefront of the debate. And in the last few weeks alone, there has been a lot of chatter and news about the debate as it stands currently, and some signs that changes are happening…

An extensive report is provided by the AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, and goes into much detail about some of the complaints voiced about the current model, as well as the challenges faced by those making an effort to change. Some are political, some economical, and some are logistical. It is not without flaws in my opinion, but does not claim to have all the answers either. Very much worth the read.

And then look at this special report from the Real Estate Journal about ‘Careers in Real Estate’. 3 of the 6 articles in this report relate to flat fee sales, competition to the MLS, and a la carte models of paying for various Real Estate Transfer services. These are all concepts raised by the Joint Center study as well.

Last year there was a fantastic book written by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt called Freakonomics. The authors use economic principles to evaluate some interesting social dynamics, and devote one section to relating Real Estate Agents to the Ku Klux Klan. Needless to say, this is not a favorable write-up. More evidence of their distaste of Realtors exists on their blog.

There are some valid and well-composed arguments in all of these pieces. I also feel that each of them go too far at times. If the issue is of interest to you, give these a read. There are some new ideas out there. And if you are not so interested in this topic, you still should read Freakonomics. As a student of both Economics and Sociology, I have a particular fascination with it. But it is wildly entertaining; brilliantly thoughtful and explorative, and humorous as well.

Income Taxes of the Rich and Famous

According to a recent analysis done by our friends at the IRS, based on 2004 tax revenue:

  • The top 1% of income tax filers paid 36.9% of all tax dollars, yet they received only 19% of total adjusted gross income (AGI).
  • The top 5% of income tax filers paid 57% of all tax dollars, and made 33% of AGI.
  • The bottom 50% of all filers paid 3.3% of total income tax
  • The lowest income earners paid negative tax rates, based on credits, etc.

Wow! Are you incorporating tax avoidance strategy in your finances? Proper mortgage financing is one of the best ways to limit your exposure. Make sure you talk to a professional mortgage planner as a part of your financial picture.

Some more interesting numbers:

  • Top 1% of AGI = $328,000 and up
  • Top 5% of AGI = $137,000 and up
  • Top 10% of AGI = $99,100 and up

Don’t get caught trying to keep up with neighbor Jones, but it’s helpful to know where you land. Good financial planning might help you cross into a new zone next year. Let me know if you need help finding a Financial Planner, CPA, etc.