How is Real Estate Like Hansel from Zoolander?

by John Glynn on May 8, 2012


Bay Area Real Estate is hot

Bay Area Real Estate - so hot right now

A quick game of connect-the-dots will paint a picture of a Bay Area Real Estate market that is “so hot right now“. I guess anything positive feels hot relative to 4.5 years of a market that’s been deader than disco. But there has been a swift change in the mood of the market in the past several weeks – call it a couple months. It is time to pay attention.

From key housing market analysts calling the bottom, to anecdotal stories of home sellers receiving multiple offers, all of the sudden we’re partying like it’s nineteen-ninety-two-thousand-and-five. This is no longer the housing market of the Great Recession. Let’s take a stroll around the local web:

On BayAreaRealEstateTrends:
Oakland’s Jay Wiedwald takes a data dive into Oakland and Piedmont home sales, separating the activity above and below $500k. “The shock of the price crash is wearing off of both sellers and buyers”

On BlogByTheBay:
George Crowe introduces the “Absorption Rate” for Marin properties below $1 Million “The absorption rate for Marin homes under a million dollars was over 90% for March”

On BayAreaRealEstateTrends:
Greg Fielding provides an April snapshot for Real Estate along the 680 corridor, with inventory data by town. “The Market is on Fire”

On CalculatedRiskBlog:
A broader view based on national real estate data. “Inventory declines 21% year over year”

On Patch(Piedmont):
A smaller data set, but up 50%? This is not a starter home market, either. “Home sales in Piedmont during April were up 50 percent over March 2012”

It has Been Feeling Like a Market Bottom for a Few Months Now

I’ve been contemplating the idea of a market bottom for a few months. My last post here was all the way back during the end of NFL season, when I suggested taking a lesson from Tebow’s faith.

Shortly after, on one of my other writing posts, I recalled a 1980 essay from bond market magnate Bill Gross referred to as The Plankton Theory of Housing. It explores the health of the housing markets by looking at food chain dynamics, and whether it’s a good thing for the market when investors gobble up the low end inventory.

And, if you follow me on twitter, where I’m good for 5 links a day related to the Bay Area, Housing Markets, and/or Real Estate Finance, I’ve been pointing out every time a noted analyst has called the bottom. There has been a recent flurry of such calls, and many of this post’s links have been broadcast there already.

Time to Get Moving?

If you’ve been waiting for the bottom, and now you’re ready to jump into this market, it will help to start budgeting your monthly housing payment. Submit your info on the upper right to get a live rate quote.

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