FHA Borrowers In The SF Bay Area To Face Restricted Access

California awash in red as the most severe adjustments will hit the highest cost areas

There is structural change pending for FHA mortgages that will soon trim down the maximum size of an FHA loan by 14%.

Due to change on or before October 1, 2011, this change will impact the San Francisco Bay Area more than any other part of the country.

The following counties in the Bay Area are presently at the loan limit ceiling of $729,750, and will be reduced to $625,500 ceilings in a matter of months:

Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara

Already on Borrowed Time

The limit of $729,750 is a temporary extension afforded by stimulus act legislation that put a temporary lift on the conforming loan limits. This was intended as a way of opening mortgage refugee camps to provide borrowing access to just-barely-jumbo borrowers when the jumbo market went into seizure in August of 2007 – the beginning of the financial crisis.

The limits have been extended by Congress each year since. But for the first time since the crisis and associated meltdown in financial markets, the political sentiment has flopped the other way. Movements are afoot to trim down the exposure and involvement of government-sponsored, government conservatorized, and government run bodies in the mortgage marketplace.

That means that despite the growing realization that the economy is not on a clear recovery path, the usual assumption that Congress will extend these loan limits is currently questionable.

HUD Releases Impact Study Findings

HUD recently issued a study to measure the impact. Their findings suggest that for California FHA-endorsed loans since January 1, 2010, 5% of the cases representing 12% of the outstanding balances in dollar total would be ineligible under the new ceilings.

Reaction

12% of the dollar volume of the FHA marketplace is not insignificant by any stretch.  Right now, you can use a maxed-out FHA loan to buy a home worth $756,000 with the minimum 3.5% down payment. Once these limits expire, the reach is reduced to $648,000

That is a key price range in the high cost Bay Area. The 650k to 750k range is an active price bandwidth that will undoubtedly feel this impact. If this is to be a step backward in order to take two steps forward toward a privatized mortgage marketplace, it certainly will not have a positive initial impact; the housing economy is on wobbly knees as it is. Trimming access, as this will do undermines demand, period.

We already have demand issues. And we certainly have credit access issues. This will not help.

The Current Opportunity

If you’re a buyer in this range, or a refinance candidate looking for the right opportunity to transact, you should give serious consideration here. Rates are at 2011 lows, and lenders have been known to cut off access prior to formal effective dates of changes like this. Meaning, an October 1 change date does not guarantee you that lenders will still participate in originations in September, or even August.

If this is your range, the clock is ticking. Contact me below if you’d like to explore how this applies to your individual circumstances.

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    How Often Do Mortgage Rates Change? May 2011 update

    One of the reasons it can be difficult annoying to shop for mortgage is because the undulating marketplace for interest rates can lead you to conflicting feedback from different providers. Banks issue loan rate pricing each morning, but often adjust mid-day when the bond market is moving one way or the other. And just as can happen in the bond markets, interest rates can get on a run up, a run down, or a choppy sideways pattern that looks like your neighbor’s kid on a pogo stick passing by the kitchen window.

     

    Mortgage Rate Volatility Index 2011 May
    Mortgage Volatility Index - updated for May 2011. I'll admit, this chart has become a complete psychedelic mess. Over the 5 months since I began tracking this information, the display has become a bad 70's moment. Apologies. I'll need to find a new format. If you are having 'flashbacks' DO NOT click on the chart.

    Rates changed 39 times during the 21 bond trading days in May.

    That can really make it a pain in the neck to figure out what the best rate is going to be when you’re in the middle of buying or refinancing a home. You call one lender first thing in the morning, email two others at lunch, one of whom doesn’t reply until the end of the day, and by the time you have all your research, you’re looking at three different ‘vintages’ of rate quote. Can a fair comparison be made?

    Maybe.

    But you’ll need to know first if rates have changed over the course of the day. And based on recent history, odds are you’ll be comparing apples and gooseberries. Besides, even if you can get three quotes in the same window, how do you know if today is better than tomorrow?

    When it comes to mortgage quotes, the little differences can be meaningful. If you want to maximize your shopping results, you need to make sure you are comparing quotes from the same vintage, and you need to know what vintage is produced in the best climate.

    Rates changed every 3.76 hours in May

    In Maythere were 21 bond trading days. We received 39 rate sheets over those 21 days, or an average 1.86 rate sheets per day.

    Most lenders have open lock desks for 8 hours a day. Some are open for 9, and the most aggressive lenders, often the most sensitive to bond market fluctuation, accept rate locks for about 6 or 6 1/2 hours a day. On turbulent bond market days, they often delay the first rate sheet release.

    Assuming an average of 7 hours for an open lock desk, and 1.86 rate sheets per day, that means rates changed every 3.76 hours. Compared to January’s average expiration of 2.29 hours, the volatility has fallen significantly in recent months.

    Intra-day Mortgage Rate Volatility Doesn’t Tell You Everything

    While volatility was pretty steady month over month from April to May, the direction of rates in general was lower. Other than one brief increase, rates trended downward, steadily, all month. The conviction of the move likely had much to do with lower volatility.

    Even still, with rates lasting less than 4 hours on average, it still makes it difficult to do your comparison shopping.

    How to Make the Most of it

    Last month, rates changed 39 times on 21 bond trading days. If a typical escrow period when you’re buying a new home is 30 days, that means you had a 1 in 39 chance to nail it on your rate lock. If you’re qualified to be applying for a mortgage, it’s a virtual certainty that you already have a full time job, so you really should rely on a professional with the time and insight to be able to monitor this for you.

    If you speak to someone who suggests they can get you the perfect lock, that’s probably a bad sign. Market prediction on that level is impossible. Similarly, you shouldn’t expect to catch the market at it’s absolute low – it’s not a realistic expectation. But a professional who can explain the market context you’re transacting in, and show you which calendared events have potential to introduce risk or opportunity to your strategy, is probably more valuable as a resource than anything else when trying to maximize your rate lock.

    Make sure you get your rate quotes in the same vintage. This means that any lender who isn’t quick to reply to your inquiry isn’t really helping out. Then, make sure your lender is tuned in to the economic calendar, so that you can be aware of what days are more or less likely to be volatile ones. The market gets little economic data points or events to digest just about every day. It’s important to know which ones carry greater risk at any given time, as their significance can change with the greater context of the marketplace. The last thing you want to do is leave your rate lock open when the risk is greater than the potential reward.

    Working with your lender to create a lock and pricing strategy suitable for your transaction will probably shed some light on who you’re working with, and serve you far better in the long run than comparing apples and gooseberries.

    Need help with a rate lock strategy? Contact me below and tell me how I can help.

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      Is George Costanza A Case-Shiller Analyst? And Why Does The Mercury News Think Declining Foreclosures Are Bad?

      silicon_valley_jobs
      Somewhere out there ... there's a job

      photo © 2009 Revol Web | more info (via: Wylio)Real estate values are off 33% from their 2006 value peak, nationally speaking. According to the Case-Shiller home price index, we’ve just crested the hump of a small bounce, and are in the early stage of ‘double-dipping‘.

      But national trends don’t tell you everything you need to know about your local Bay Area real estate market. Real estate value trends depend on the broader national picture, but also on a scale of region, city, even neighborhood. Local forces are at work in local markets.

      As an example, a San Francisco client of mine who bought a condo for 1.2MM in November 2009 just had it appraised at 1.6MM in April 2011. 33% gain in 1.5 years – you’re not getting a read on that micro-market when you look at the Case-Shiller index, or even the San Francisco-specific data for Case-Shiller, which suggests a decline over the same period.

      Watch Jobs Data To Predict Real Estate Values

      With a title like “Foreclosures In Silicon Valley Remain Stubbornly Low“, you might think the San Jose Mercury News would follow with a story about the relatively strong employment market in the area. Unemployment is still high, like everywhere, but it’s lower than the general California rate. And, there’s that whole booming dotcom round two going on with Facebook growing like a weed, LinkedIn set for IPO tomorrow, and of course bellwethers like ‘the’ Google.

      Unemployment correlates to real estate values. It’s pretty tough to pay the mortgage when you don’t have income. Tech firms are in growth mode, and with that sector abuzz, jobs are available. It stands to reason that fewer properties in the area would be falling into foreclosure, because the people who live there, more so than greater California, are still drawing income.

      So why does the Mercury News draw a different interpretation? They suggest that the decline in foreclosures represents a concern because it must imply there is a building back-up of soon-to-be foreclosures. Maybe, but jeepers, talk about a glass half-empty attitude!

      Maybe the news media has to paint the situation with a black brush to stir up drama. Maybe they just don’t get it. Or maybe they are on to something… But even if there is a mechanical problem with the foreclosures being purged from the marketplace, and you have improving employment trends, some of those would-be foreclosures are going to be cured, prevented, avoided, etc. So in the end, I don’t share the sentiment expressed in this article.

      The robo-signing issue cited in this piece is a national phenomenon. To make local extrapolations like this is awkward – it would affect other areas in the same way, and I believe this robo-signing is a state-by-state issue if not just a national one.

      This isn’t the first time the newspapers misrepresented the story of the mortgage marketplace. But I’d rather they applauded the local industry and somewhat stronger jobs marketplace.

       

       

      Is Now The Time To Buy A McMansion?

      McMansion - a gigantic suburban home

      Social trends influence real estate development – what little of it there is right now – and the result is a meandering set of styles, attributes and value systems in the fabric of the marketplace as time marches on.

      This piece from Slate speculates about the waning appetite for the super-sized “McMansion”, characterized by extra bedrooms, gigantic kitchens, and above-average square footage, that were increasingly sought after as the real estate bubble was inflating a few years ago.

      I think these are pretty easy to find in certain Bay Area suburbs.

      Get a mortgage rate quote for a McMansion

      Those homes still exist. Even if the demand falls, it’s not like they’re removed from the market. But after a few years of punishment for living on too much credit, does the consumer psyche have what it takes to justify so many extra bedrooms? Or a fully functional outdoor kitchen? Does that imply that the McMansion is hit harder on value in favor of more practical options? It wouldn’t surprise me if the data supported this idea.

      What about when we bounce back from this mess – has the consumer credit monster been lobotomized? Was that just a crazy fad like bell bottoms?

      Guess you better slow your mustang down…

      Take a look at what happened in the auto industry in the early 80s – after a bout of hyper inflation and skyrocketing fuel costs, gas guzzling muscle cars like the Dodge Charger, Pontiac GTO, and Plymouth Road Runner fell out of favor to the newly energy conscious driver. Compact fuel efficient models took over the marketplace until society worked out the hangover of high prices. And that’s when the SUV arrived.

      Now that we’re becoming fuel cost-sensitive again, I happen to find myself in need of a large vehicle while everyone else is chasing after the hybrids. Politics aside, there are some sweet deals on the big thirsty family haulers these days…

      I looked in the mirror, a red light was blinkin

      So if the McMansion is declining in appeal, I doubt it will last. Now might be a good time to go bigger on real estate in a sector that is in a bigger state of decline. In 2006, everyone wanted the McMansion. Now, they’re half as expensive, and there’s concern about value decline… I wonder if in a few years we’ll look back and think do that whole woulda coulda thing…

      If you’re shopping for a new home, how has the recent environment shaped the profile of your target property?

       

      How Often Do Mortgage Rates Change? (April 2011 update)

      Mortgage Rate Volatility updated through April 2011
      Mortgage rate change volatility is down in April

      One way you can drive yourself crazy trying to get the best deal you can on a mortgage is to obsess over comparing interest rates. Don’t get me wrong – we’re usually talking about a 30 year expense here, and the rate and general loan pricing is a critical component of effective, financially responsible, home ownership.

      But you can take it too far by trying to nail the market at it’s absolute best level, and you can also disrupt the process by idling for too long in shopping mode.

      Luckily, there are a few general guides you can stick to in order to maximize your outcome, and avoid shooting yourself in the foot.

      Rates changed 36 times during the 21 bond trading days in April.

      That can really make it a pain in the neck to figure out what the best rate is going to be when you’re in the middle of buying or refinancing a home. You call one lender first thing in the morning, email two others at lunch, one of whom doesn’t reply until the end of the day, and by the time you have all your research, you’re looking at three different ‘vintages’ of rate quote. Can a fair comparison be made?

      Maybe.

      But you’ll need to know first if rates have changed over the course of the day. And based on recent history, odds are you’ll be comparing apples and papayas. Besides, even if you can get three quotes in the same window, how do you know if today is better than tomorrow?

      When it comes to mortgage quotes, the little differences can be meaningful. If you want to maximize your shopping results, you need to make sure you are comparing quotes from the same vintage, and you need to know what vintage is produced in the best climate.

      Rates changed every 4.12 hours in April

      In April there were 21 bond trading days. We received 36 rate sheets over those 21 days, or an average 1.71 rate sheets per day.

      Most lenders have open lock desks for 8 hours a day. Some are open for 9, and the most aggressive lenders, often the most sensitive to bond market fluctuation, accept rate locks for about 6 or 6 1/2 hours a day. On turbulent bond market days, they often delay the first rate sheet release.

      Assuming an average of 7 hours for an open lock desk, and 1.71 rate sheets per day, that means rates changed every 4.12 hours. Compared to January’s average expiration of 2.29 hours, the volatility has been cut nearly in half over the past few months.

      Intra-day Volatility is Only Part of the Picture

      The trend toward lower volatility compared to prior months can be seen in several ways. The most changes in a single day was 3, which happened only twice. We had more calm days; there were 8 days with one rate issue, up from 6 in March, 3 in February, and none in January.

      Lower volatility is a good thing. It takes some anxiety out of the process for working through a purchase or refinance transaction, and it also tends to help reduce defensive pricing by lenders, giving them greater confidence to be aggressive.

      But volatility only provides part of the picture. During the month of April, mortgage rates traveled quite a range, ending significantly lower than both where they began, and also the highest mark set on April 8. If you were in escrow looking to lock your rate, you’d not only want to know about vintages for comparing quotes, but when in the month would be the best time to lock no matter where you do it.

      How to Make the Most of it

      Last month, rates changed 36 times on 21 bond trading days. If a typical escrow period when you’re buying a new home is 30 days, that means you had a 1 in 36 chance to nail it on your rate lock. If you’re applying for a mortgage, it’s a virtual certainty that you already have a full time job, so you really should rely on a professional with the time and insight to be able to monitor this for you.

      If you speak to someone who suggests they can get you the perfect lock, that’s probably a bad sign. Market prediction on that level is impossible. Similarly, you shouldn’t expect to catch the market at it’s absolute low – it’s not a realistic expectation. But a professional who can explain the market context you’re transacting in, and show you which calendared events have potential to introduce greater risk or opportunity to your strategy, is probably more valuable as a resource than anything else when trying to maximize your rate lock.

      Make sure you get your rate quotes in the same vintage. This means that any lender who isn’t quick to reply to your inquiry isn’t really helping out. Then, make sure your lender is tuned in to the economic calendar, so that you can be aware of what days are more or less likely to be volatile ones. The market gets little economic data snacks to munch on every day. It’s critical to know which ones are bigger, might cause indigestion, induce vomiting, etc. The last thing you want to do is leave your rate lock open when the risk is greater than the potential reward.

      Working with your lender to create a lock and pricing strategy suitable for your transaction will probably shed some light on who you’re working with, and serve you far better in the long run than comparing apples and papayas.

      Need help with a rate lock strategy? Contact me below and tell me how I can help.

        Your Name (required)

        Your Email (required)

        Subject

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        Freak Nasty Predicted This Real Estate Market In 1997 (proof)

        Who knew back in 1997 that Freak Nasty was talking about a housing bubble?

        Consider this quote as evidence – was it a clue?

        “Drop down, double-up on those dips”

        YouTube Preview Image

         

        Following the release earlier this week of the Case-Shiller home price index, there has been a rash of articles about the Double-Dip in housing hitting the wires. While that conversation is a little big different than the much-debated Double-Dip in the broader economy – another downturn in housing will not help an economy that is struggling to recover from the last one.

        Yikes. Kind of makes me feel like just throwing my hands up and dancing.

        What say you, homeowner past-present-or-future? Case-Shiller looks at national figures, and 20 metro markets. But inside the Bay Area, there are hundreds of micro-hoods where different forces are at work. Even San Francisco proper has dozens. What’s going on in your neighborhood? Post your thoughts about your local market (or about Freak Nasty if that’s what you’d prefer).

        Do Earthquakes In Japan Cause US Mortgage Rates To Go Up?

        Inflation Tsunami?
        Running from the inflation tsunami? Look to lock in long term mortgage rates now.

        photo © 2005 J | more info (via: Wylio)The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdowns that have happened in Japan have left quite a path of physical destruction. Aside from the tragedy associated with property and human tolls, the impact to global markets is an interesting one to consider. We’ve discussed in the past how surprise events can affect markets, and natural disasters fall into that category.

        Paul Kasriel, economist with Northern Trust, writes some of my favorite perspectives on economics. In a recent essay, he discussed the facets of this event and how they’d likely impact markets. Japan is a nation with relatively few natural resources.  He raises the issue that if government spending in Japan is boosted to rebuild infrastructure, an increasing demand on imports of raw materials can help to fan the inflationary flames of an already hot commodity market, pushing prices higher. Similarly, demand for products formerly produced in Japan, now on hold due to factory shutdowns, will increase in other economies as global demand persists across a shortened supply.

        Kasriel uses the example of demand for hybrid Fords increasing as the supply and availability of Japan’s Toyota Prius reduces. Increasing demand leads to increasing price, and there you have a component of the data showing inflation.

        What To Do About Your Mortgage

        It doesn’t matter where it comes from; inflation, or fear of inflation will drive interest rates higher, and this pertains specifically to long term instruments like mortgages. There’s an increasing buzz about inflation in the economy, with many consumers confused by reports of low to moderate inflation when they feel it in their day to day living costs, particularly in food and energy costs. Food and energy are excluded from the core inflation data, but for reasons that really only matter in the short term view, not the long term.

        Inflation can sneak up on you, sometimes through a string of events that are difficult to connect. It’s best not to be left exposed, and locking in long term financing on your real estate now will help you avoid some of the uncertainty headed our way. You can gain quite an advantage by setting a long term cost (such as a 30 year fixed mortgage) before markets turn on short term trajectories. Don’t sit idle here.

         

         

        The Push-Pull Debate On The Real Estate Market Recovery

        Who will feed the whale?

        I’ve always thought that the “Plankton Theory” on housing made a lot of sense. It says that for values to increase, there must be demand at the entry level costs, since move-up buyers need somebody to sell to before they can buy a bigger house. Just like big fish in the ocean wouldn’t be able to eat small fish if the small fish couldn’t eat the plankton. I believe the analogy was first introduced by PIMCO’s Bill Gross in 1980. Logically, it makes perfect sense, and when pondering the question of when/where will housing recover, my eyes have accordingly been on the first time buyer activity.

        About a year and a half ago, we looked at some data supporting this concept – the ripple up from first-time buyer values showed gradually weakening support.

        And in recent weeks, there’s been a flurry of news from the other end of the spectrum – the high end property. There are several theories about why the wealthy are buying, and why they are buying with cash. But the bottom line is that February 2011 sales data showed that homes selling above 1MM were up 3.9%, outperforming all other price ranges.

        There have been several stories about this trend. And some prominent folks in real estate and finance – Barbara CorcoranDonald TrumpJohn Paulson – are turning up the volume on their excitement over housing at these levels.  –

        As opposed to a push up from demand among first time buyer, are we going to see recovery from the top down? Where wealthy buyers gobble up high end homes, and essentially pull from the top, demand rippling all the way down to the bottom? Maybe a little of both? The number of wealthy buyers who can afford to buy another property without selling one at the same time would seem to be small relative to the overall market. But this activity represents a force at play. It’s an interesting dynamic to keep an eye on. What do you think?

        Greed, Capitalism, Budget Debates and Bank Robberies – What’s Changed Since 1979?

        There’s a lot of crazy in the air right now, with the impending threat of a United States Government shutdown. Politicians are in a deep, muddy ditch of negative public sentiment, and by the way: when you’re in a hole, you’re supposed to stop digging… Budget fighting is nothing new, but it seems the stakes are growing larger with ballooning federal debt, compounded by increasing fears of rising interest rates. This graphic from Planet Money helps put the dispute in perspective:

        There are swelling fears about entitlement costs (crazy infographic on social security from visualeconomics.com).

        There is anger over wall street titans getting rich (from Big Picture blog):

        somebody call the cops!

        About That Shutdown and Mortgages

        Anyway, this is a mortgage website. So it’s worth making a quick comment here about what a government shutdown would mean inside this space. The primary concern is with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) lending. FHA is under the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, considered a “non-essential service”, and therefore subject to some “lights out” time. If lenders cannot obtain FHA case numbers from FHA offices (part of the origination process), that will prevent forward progress on FHA transactions. Also, FHA will not be available to issue endorsements and mortgage insurance certificates. Banks seeking to make FHA loans are unlikely to do with a delay/block of this step in the process. Functionally, FHA lending could take a hiatus along with your elected representative. A shutdown in 1995 caused such a disruption with FHA lending, then a much less important sector of the Bay Area real estate marketplace. It won’t crush the marketplace, but it has the potential to stress a few people out.

        What’s Changed?

        This is a really interesting snippet of an interview of famed economist Milton Friedman by Phil Donahue in 1979. Phil questions the philosophy of capitalism, core to the spirit and foundation of the United States of America. As we sit here approaching 2 and a half centuries as a nation, and our fearless leaders are bickering over ideologies and the near-term direction of our teetering economy, this conversation from a different time and a different social and political and economic context is really, really interesting.

        YouTube Preview Image

        Craziness. It’s in the air today, isn’t it? What do you think about it all? Welcoming (encouraging) comments below…

        How Often Do Mortgage Rates Change? (March 2011 Update)

         

        Mortgage Rates frequency of change by day January - March 2011
        Mortgage Rates frequency of change by day January - March 2011

        One of the things that can be difficult about shopping for a mortgage, or for a mortgage provider, is that as you make contact with a few people and ask about rates, the ground is shifting beneath your feet.Call one lender first thing in the morning, email two others at lunch, one of whom doesn’t reply until the end of the day, and you’re looking at three different ‘vintages’ of rate quote. Can a fair comparison be made?

        Maybe.

        But you’ll need to know first if rates have changed over the course of the day. And based on recent history, odds are you’ll be comparing apples and raspberries.

        But when it comes to mortgage quotes, the little differences can be meaningful. If you want to maximize your shopping results, you need to make sure you are comparing quotes from the same vintage.

         

        Rates changed ever 2.71 hours in March

        In March there were 23 bond trading days. We received 53 rate sheets over those 23 days, or an average 2.30 rate sheets per day. We had a few calm days with only one issue of rates, and the most extreme day had 5 different rate sheets. That was yesterday, attributed to some pre-jobs data jitters.

        Most lenders have open lock desks for 8 hours a day. Some are open for 9, and the most aggressive lenders, often the most sensitive to bond market fluctuation, accept rate locks for about 6 or 6 1/2 hours a day. On turbulent bond market days, they often delay the first rate sheet release.

        Assuming an average of 7 hours for an open lock desk, and 2.30 rate sheets per day, that means rates changed every 3.04 hours. Compared to January’s average expiration of 2.71 hours, that’s 12% less volatility for March. February was less volatile than January also, so this is now a 3 month trend of decreasing volatility, but this is by no means a placid market.

        Only A Partial Picture

        Lower volatility is a good thing. It takes some anxiety out of the process for working through a purchase or refinance transaction, and it also tends to help reduce defensive pricing by lenders, giving them greater confidence to be aggressive.

        But volatility only provides part of the picture. During the month of March, mortgage rates went on a round trip, dipping for the first half of the month to a low point on March 16, and then climbing back to where they began the month for a net break-even. If you were in escrow looking to lock your rate, you’d not only want to know about vintages for comparing quotes, but when in the month would be the best time to lock no matter where you do it.

        How to stay in front of it

        First, make sure you get your rate quotes in the same vintage. This means that any lender who isn’t quick to reply isn’t really helping out. Second, make sure your lender is tuned in to the economic calendar, so that you can be aware of what days are more or less likely to be volatile ones. The market gets little economic data snacks to munch on every day. It’s critical to know which ones are bigger, might cause indigestion, induce vomiting, etc. The last thing you want to do is leave your rate lock open when the risk is greater than the potential reward.

        Working with your lender to create a lock and pricing strategy suitable for your transaction will probably shed some light on who you’re working with, and serve you far better in the long run than comparing apples and raspberries.

        Need help with a rate lock strategy? Contact me below and tell me how I can help.

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